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News Archive

August 13, 2010
Retailers outlook
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May 24, 2010
Global Asset Allocation themes pt2
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November 13, 2008
Global IP growth update
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October 21, 2008
Equity market trough timeline
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October 03, 2008
Investment Bulletin Oct 08
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March 19, 2008
Resources. IP & the USD
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February 11, 2008
Corporate Spreads & Equities
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September 20, 2007
Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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ISM recoveries
May 14, 2009

Last nights US retail sales data was disappointing and raises doubts over the strength and/or sustainability of any global IP recovery.

Inventories have been cut back sharply and any recovery in final demand was likely to lead to rising ISM new orders and production. The retail sales data raises questions over the strength of any inventory-related cycle. If we look at past major troughs, the ISM has typically risen strongly for 3-8 months before easing back (not so in 1975). So we are currently about half way through the initial recovery.

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