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News Archive
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May 24, 2010
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Global Asset Allocation themes pt2
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September 20, 2007
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Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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ISM recoveries
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May 14, 2009
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Last nights US retail sales data was disappointing and raises doubts over the strength and/or sustainability of any global IP recovery.
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Inventories have been cut back sharply and any recovery in final demand was likely to lead to rising ISM new orders and production. The retail sales data raises questions over the strength of any inventory-related cycle.
If we look at past major troughs, the ISM has typically risen strongly for 3-8 months before easing back (not so in 1975). So we are currently about half way through the initial recovery.

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