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News Archive
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May 24, 2010
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Global Asset Allocation themes pt2
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September 20, 2007
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Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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Global IP growth update
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November 13, 2008
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With the release of the Chinese IP numbers we have downgraded our global IP forecasts. Chinese IP for October came in at 8.2% yoy.
G7 IP is projected to fall to –7% in the year to February 2009, which leaves this downturn the worst since 1973-74
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Why was 1973-74 so deep? In 1973-74, the Fed was lifting rates from 10% to 13% as the economy slowed. Inflation (following the first oil shock) prevented earlier action to stem the downturn. While inflation is not a constraint on this occasion, de-leveraging is a considerable headwind.
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