Markets at critical point
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StrategyEngine Observations
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April 27, 2009
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A number of markets have moved to critical levels. To move to the next stage of recovery in “risk assets” markets need to feel there is a reasonable chance that growth momentum can be sustained.
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Long term returns
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from the Engine Room
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March 20, 2009
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As at the end of February, US total equity returns in real terms were approaching 2 standard deviations below trend (based on data 1908-2009).
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10 years on
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StrategyEngine Observations
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March 16, 2009
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10 year annualised real US equity returns turned negative in June 2008 and have continued lower since to record the worst 10 year real return period in the past 100 years of data.
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Global IP growth update
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from the Engine Room
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November 13, 2008
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With the release of the Chinese IP numbers we have downgraded our global IP forecasts. Chinese IP for October came in at 8.2% yoy.
G7 IP is projected to fall to –7% in the year to February 2009, which leaves this downturn the worst since 1973-74
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Equity market trough timeline
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from the Engine Room
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October 21, 2008
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Looking at past troughs in US equities we see that the market has turned 3-6 months before the trough in the ISM, 4-8 months before the IP trough and 3-12 months before EPS and profits
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Model uncertainty - Valuations
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StrategyEngine Observations
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October 10, 2008
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With earnings highly uncertain and forward projections lagging market developments a risk is that markets begin to use longer term normalised (trend) trailing EPS as an appropriate measure.
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Investment Bulletin Oct 08
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from the Engine Room
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October 03, 2008
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Global growth forecasts continue to be downgraded. Europe and Japan are in recession with IP growth slowing to –1% in Germany and –4.7% in Japan. US IP has slowed to –1.5% and Chinese IP is now 12.8%.
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Investment Scenarios 2008
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StrategyEngine Observations
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May 01, 2008
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In this note we look at a range of scenarios for the US economy, discuss the key drivers of the US economy and highlight the implications for asset class returns. While our expectation is that the US has a prolonged period of weak growth, there is likely to be better news in the near tem which could see markets continue to support the “recovery” scenario.
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Resources. IP & the USD
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from the Engine Room
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March 19, 2008
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Normally there is a good relationship between global IP momentum and the CRB. Global IP momentum has eased (with more to come), yet the CRB had pushed higher.
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HIS Strategy Bureau Service
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Newsletter
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March 11, 2008
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The Investment Strategy Bureau Service provides access to Heuristic Investment System’s vast economic and financial market databases, the StrategyEngine analytical platform and years of expertise and experience in investment markets.
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Equity Sector Strategy
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StrategyEngine Observations
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March 01, 2008
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Equity market now cheap globally. Australia fair value but earnings risk emerging for domestic focussed sectors. Value re-emerging in property, utilities, insurance, diversified financials and banks.
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Corporate Spreads & Equities
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from the Engine Room
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February 11, 2008
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Typically, peaks in BBB spreads coincide with the troughs in activity.Peaks in spreads have also coincided with troughs in profits.
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Heuristic's News
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Newsletter
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December 06, 2007
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HIS’s Investment Bureau Service continues to grow, with the addition of two new clients.
Heuristic's recently started working with vaneyk Research, providing investment strategy and economic analysis. Mark Thomas said, " we use Heuristic’s as an objective source of economic and investment analysis. Their StrategyEngine platform allows us to investigate investment ideas, to test "theories" and identify and formulate investment strategies in a more interactive manner. The combination of Heuristic's investment management experience and the StrategyEngine software is a useful input into our investment management process."
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Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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from the Engine Room
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September 20, 2007
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In inflation adjusted terms, oil is slightly above 1990 levels and would have to rise to around $100 to meet the 1980 peak.
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Heuristic's NEWS
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Newsletter
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October 19, 2006
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HIS has recently signed up two new licences for its Fixed Interest Engine (FIE) software. The two clients extensively trialed the system and worked with HIS in developing and enhancing functionality to meet their requirements.
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