Market Extremes
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StrategyEngine Observations
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May 25, 2011
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The chartpack focuses on extremes or critical points in a range of markets and economic indicators.
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US equities... time for a pause
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from the Engine Room
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February 21, 2011
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The ISM appears to be peaking. What might it mean for equities?
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Emerging markets underperforming
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from the Engine Room
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February 11, 2011
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We are downgrading emerging markets to neutral.
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Retailers outlook
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from the Engine Room
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August 13, 2010
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It is no wonder that the retailers have performed poorly. Disposable income and retail sales have fallen significantly over the past year as a combination of rising mortgage rates and unwinding of government handouts has taken its toll on year-ago comparisons.
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Global Asset Allocation themes pt2
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from the Engine Room
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May 24, 2010
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The US, G7 and Australian consumer recovery at risk from further decline in household wealth/increased savings.
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2nd year of recovery
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StrategyEngine Observations
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April 21, 2010
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The best 2nd year recoveries would be those that had a combination of solid/improving growth, steady/low/declining inflation, low/steady Fed funds and reasonable valuations.
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The 2nd phase of recovery
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StrategyEngine Observations
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December 18, 2009
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In this note we look at what has unfolded in the following 12 month periods at a similar stage in previous market recoveries.
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Global Equities...peak or pause
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StrategyEngine Observations
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November 24, 2009
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In this note we focus on some of the key drivers of equity performance (ISM, Fed funds, bond yields, EPS and valuation) and compare them across periods. Are conditions closer to that of 1974 and equities markets are poised to move higher or are they near a peak?
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Domestic v Global Equities
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StrategyEngine Observations
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July 31, 2009
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Relative EPS revisions/momentum appears to have a good relationship with domestic equities v global equities.
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ISM recoveries
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from the Engine Room
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May 14, 2009
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Last nights US retail sales data was disappointing and raises doubts over the strength and/or sustainability of any global IP recovery.
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Markets at critical point
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StrategyEngine Observations
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April 27, 2009
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A number of markets have moved to critical levels. To move to the next stage of recovery in “risk assets” markets need to feel there is a reasonable chance that growth momentum can be sustained.
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Equity market trough timeline
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from the Engine Room
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October 21, 2008
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Looking at past troughs in US equities we see that the market has turned 3-6 months before the trough in the ISM, 4-8 months before the IP trough and 3-12 months before EPS and profits
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Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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from the Engine Room
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September 20, 2007
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In inflation adjusted terms, oil is slightly above 1990 levels and would have to rise to around $100 to meet the 1980 peak.
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